November 2nd, 2012 12:23 EST
Presidential Election, Forecast 2012: Who Will Win?
Super storm hurricane Sandy appears to have wiped Romney`s election chances off the face of the political map, as President Obama has had 3 full days to capitalise on his role as commander in chief by broadcast coverage of what a thousand political ads could not have bought, with some 80% of the american public saying that he has handled the crisis well as Obama made sure he did not repeat the mistakes of George Bush following Hurricane Katrina by being seen to care for the people hit by hurricane Sandy, the widespread damage of which is still yet to be fully realised.
Nothing illustrates the extent to which Obama`s election chances have been boosted than the praise heaped upon him by Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie "I cannot thank the President enough for his personal concern and compassion." Which I am sure will have angered many republicans.
My expectations have remained constant since Mid September 2012 that Obama was heading for a relatively strong election win of more than 300 electoral votes, as subsequent events from debates, to Unemployment and economic data confirm and Obama`s performance in the face of natural disaster reinforces.
19 Sep 2012 - The Day Mitt Romney Lost the U.S. Presidential Election 2012, Youtube Fund Raising Video
After Mondays debacle, Romney has fatally crippled himself and is destined to lose the November election.
06 Oct 2012 - High U.S. Unemployment Rate, Obama Failure or Bush Catastrophe for Romney to Continue?
Therefore many american`s may be surprised on election night when the results start coming in that point to a
relatively strong Obama election win of more than 300 Electoral votes.
27th Oct 12 - Who Will Win the U.S. Presidential Election, Forecast 2012
My forecast remains for President Obama to be re-elected on November 6th with the probability favouring more than 300 electoral votes.
The momentum is firmly behind Obama going into the final days of campaigning that not even a relatively bad jobs report tomorrow (Nov 2nd) will have enough time behind it for momentum to reverse this trend. Ironically, the long term impact of Sandy will be to create jobs and stimulate the U.S. economy as damaged and destroyed homes and infrastructure will need to be rebuilt.
Source and comments - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37300.html
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem`s forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook`s - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.