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Published:November 19th, 2012 10:30 EST
War in the Middle East: No Up-side to Armageddon

War in the Middle East: No Up-side to Armageddon

By Harvey Carroll, Jr.

 
Avoiding the downfall of Humanity; as there is no up-side to Armageddon:

I recently wrote my thoughts and hopes to prevent war with Iran; yet, making it clear that if war is not avoided then it must be down with devastation like my planning of the 1st Gulf War. My pondering of Dr. Haass` expert analysis for the Council of Foreign Relations, sadly puts me in a frame of mind that is not very human and I hope that all the lack of humanity can be avoided

http://thesop.org/story/20120902/should-israel-or-the-us-conduct-military-operations-in-iran.html...

One of my wise religious friends with a very kind heart recently shared this with his friends:

There are those who choose security above love, stop believing love is enough. They reveal an inner poverty that makes them underserving of either. But they lie to themselves that they might see in a mirror their own justification.

This thought can also be rewritten as followed relating to National Security.

There are those who choose National Security above love, stop believing love is enough. They reveal an inner poverty that makes them undeserving of either. But they lie to themselves that they might see in a mirror their own justification.

Israel is at this moment retaliating against its Palestinian neighbors blamed on Hamas rocket attacks. I made a number of suggestions during the 1st Gulf War that saved millions of lives and positively affected the economic fate of nations. Much of the strategy revolved around Israel being asked to stay out of the conflict to as I felt that " if" Israel were to become involved in the conflict in 1991 the multi-national coalition would fall apart.

I also clearly defined a non-occupation of Iraq strategy that just kicked Saddam out of Kuwait. That strategy was brutal and devastating on Saddam`s Army, but it diminished him to little more than the Mayor of Baghdad and provisions to dismantle and destroy his military capabilities. Yet, Saddam continued to be a pain until his demise.

The radicalization and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood came about mainly due to the lack of American constructive policy making in the Middle East, and a continued path for peace by the Bush Administration as Bush spent his years running for President dividing the Middle East as apposed to trying to make it a more peaceful place.

In turn he got the fight he was picking and Americans were left with the trillions of dollars spent on two wars of choice as apposed to the targeting of key people responsible for 9/11.

TODAY, Israel`s Eastern and Western fronts:

Today, I undoubtedly feel that Israel knows that it is isolated and that it will be attacked f" it attacks Iran`s nuclear program. Perhaps we are seeing a preemptive move to deal with the inevitable as it uses the current situation of Hamas rocket attacks to take out as much of the military threat from Hamas side as possible. If Israeli attack on Iran would inevitably lead to a expansion of war not only from the Palestinian`s/Hamas, but on both sides of Israel.

Eastern front of Israel could ultimately expand through Lebanon, parts of Jordan, Syria, Iran and even into Afghanistan/Pakistan if the United States becomes allied with Israel as we clearly would based on both Presidential candidates making it clear in recent U.S. elections.

Western front of Israel could bring in much of the North Africa`s Arabs and their devout militaristic Muslim Communities led by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Libya and Morocco could quite easily become part of a Western front.

President Obama:

There are many who did not see an Arab Spring coming, but those of us that analyzed the 1st Gulf War, looked at the religious, political and business philosophies of the Middle East clearly flaws. We saw an American policy in the Middle East going astray. We also saw the squandering trillions of dollars with little upside for the region, and/or the safety and security of the American people, our best interest, nor the best interest of the people in the region."

Sadly, today my Post Traumatic Stress Disorder is kicking in placing me in front of this computer late at night, elbow bruised from the hard table service, wanting coffee, but needing to push these thought on to try and prevent Global conflict and the death of millions and prevent further economic downturns. Strategies that led me to praying to God if I would lose my soul to suggest flying over and blowing up the Kuwait Oil Fields; thereby, taking out Saddam`s Army quickly to save those lives and the Global Economy.

I certainly do not wish to see Iran or other parts of the Middle East devastated by war in flames that could be dozens of times more devastating than my planning of the 1st Gulf War.

YouTube Videos

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrYJoUYRZ7U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whxPMsArp64&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bnXIqlFiKg&feature=relmfu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4D35F2v8XU

Sadly, George W. Bush pushed for the return to the Gulf as I sided with the U.N. Weapons Inspectors and saw no justification to return to Iraq. I had become blacklisted and no longer had solid influence to prevent war, but this time like the 1st Gulf War I hope that my advice will be taken.

War is becoming the norm, with little love and/or humanity in perspective.   I am pondering that the World may be moving closer to major Middle Eastern Conflict that would bring much of the Global powers into the mix.  George W. Bush made blunders and so has President Obama. 

The Obama administration and thank tanks pushing for change during the Arab spring did little to look at long term strategy as to what would become the new leadership and if it would really provide the reforms that the average person taking to the streets were wanting.  I personally think that the Arab Spring street protesters lost dozens of rights; especially, women, while only gaining the right to vote.

While I wrote the initial suggestions for "Humanitarian Intervention" in Libya, I favored a "Divided Libya Policy" that separated the East and West much like the 1952 pre Gadhafi regime inner Libya geopolitical boundaries. This would have prevented "Death Democracy via the regime change doctrine"   and most likely prevented the death of our U.S. Diplomats.

Afghanistan is winding down, but it too has gone on too long with less than expected results. I personally felt that the fighters didn`t get the 2003 Memo of Bush and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld basically saying the war was over; however, we are still there today nearly a decade later.  Much of Afghanistan is still Anti-American as is our profiteering friend Pakistan.  Yet, when it comes to Drugs, Guns and Jihad, reason and humanity is placed far behind profits.

While the Global War on Terrorism (GWoT) is of great importance, humanity is much more important as it teaches the basic respects that take out the profiteering on conflict and certainly takes the quest for a potentially bright young man or woman from strapping a bomb on themselves and committing mass murder of innocent men, women and children.

The GWoT the quest for oil and the blurring ideologies into idiocracy can and is drawing former Super Power Russia wanting to flex it`s new capitalistically funded military influence as well China and its State run Capitalistic military machine funded by bad U.S. Debt service and bad trade deals pushing Fair Trade aside over that of special interest "Free Traders" such as Senator McConnell. To add insult to injury our policies post 9/11 have all been counter productive to rebuilding Americas Economic Statecraft base via the World Trade Center.  American instead of simply creating a Virtual World Trade Center chose a path of war that squandered trillions of dollars as well as a path of bad trade deals that tripled the trade deficit to nearly 1 trillion dollars.

The long term blurring of friend and foe under flawed U.S. Strategic Strategies in the Middle East has Turkey and the EU also pondering just what our real plan and/or outcome intentions are.  While much of the EU/NATO/UN Countries have been with us in Middle Eastern Policy, they are also pondering our decade of destabilization of the Middle East and the Global Economy.  The EU is now in a triple recession and I doubt the really see an upside to continued conflict in the region.

Russia, China and Iran are supporting the Assad regime, mainly due to the lack of reason and simple understandings that could have prevented Civil Conflict in Syria via Diplomatic Delegations " and simple request for Parliamentary Elections within Syria. Instead of bold reason we have bloodshed.

 The Ideology of a Holy-War or Armageddon is more in tune today than in the past:

For decades, the United States as well as the old Soviet policy makers pitted one Middle Eastern Country against the other, which cost mass amounts of lives and treasure, which vastly affected the Global economy over the past several decades.  The Middle Eastern big boys on the block Iran and Saudi Arabia often prod the little kids to fight it out, while providing them with the weaponry they need; thereby, fighting a "Proxy Profiteering Conflict."

There have been few changes in this theater other than the United States having a bi-polar policy approach that basically took on the role of both policy making for the United States and that of Russia/former Soviet Union, but did a much better job at it.  I say this as the United States has had such silly policymaking that it undermined its self far more than the Soviet Union could have ever done.

Roles are reversed as Saudi Arabia is now pushing the United States to attack Iran as apposed to the U.S. prodding countries into fighting in the Middle East.  To top that off most of the Middle East has turned radical and very Anti-American and Anti-Western, which has affected our NATO/EU allies` business relationships and their political strategies and interest as well.

Pointing out the major divisions, and sectarian sides of the Middle East:

SHIA:

The first is mainly Shia.  This is the bonds that keep Syria, Iran and Hezbollah leadership in power.  Now Iraq has a rise of Shia influence as well.  But, what they share more so than religious ties is their hate for America and Israel. 

Poor U.S. policies in the region have made these ties ever stronger.  First as the U.S. supported Saddam against Iran, and then as the U.S. deposed Saddam from power via occupation; thereby, creating a loose-loose political relationship between the three countries.

SUNNI:

The Saudi`s are Sunni, as are much of Western Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Libya.  Saudi Arabia and Qatar are supporting the Syrian Sunni opposition with guns and funds, some of which are now thought to be falling into extremist, al-Qaeda-affiliated hands.    The U.S. is again pushing Death Democracy and calling for regime change in Syria. 

The good thing is that these groups are more favorable towards the United States and have a long had long term business relationships that the United States has relied upon for decades.  Yet, profit over peace appears to be the norm and we can clearly see a rise in Arms dealers and more Lord of War want-to-be`s like Brian Sayer and his support for the Free Syrian Army .

The Arab League primarily managed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) are the powerbrokers of the region.  They acted in Bahrain by sending troops there, was lax in Libya as was the African Union (which, I will discuss later and go into details of its vast divide and ineptness).  The Saudi Royal Family is very powerful and has a number of relatives as Heads of State within the region.  Saudi Arabia is not above moving slow and/or even playing both sides against the middle in dealing with Middle Eastern Policy and one has to keep an eye on both his enemies and friends in the region.

The Geopolitical Shia loss in Iraq, but potential gains in Syria.  Yet, one has to ponder why?  Saudi goes against Russia, which has gotten a number of oil pipe line deals with Saudi Arabia.  One has to ponder what the gain is and the real push to rid the region of Bashar al-Assad.  Could it be a pipeline through the region into turkey and to Europe?  If so then what affect will the lack of control in Iraq be and why would Saudi run oil through Iraq since Iraq has its own oil?  All questions to ponder as to what Saudi`s real reasoning is.

Russia of course is a no-nonsense type of nation that is only in it for the money and what is of immediate gain for Russia, currently it is Agriculture/Trade deals, arms sales.  Yet, they too have been doing oil pipe line deals in the region to try and up their cash-flows to improve their economic statecraft influence on the region.   All while the U.S. pushes causes and special interest profiteering over real national and economic security interest for the Untied States and its NATO/EU Partners.  We really need a business person at meetings with the Secretary of State, the CIA and the President in dealing with Middle Eastern Economic Affairs.

ISRAEL:

Israel is boxed in and can easily become Pandora`s Box " if they decide to send troops outside that box.

Israel was already dealing with a number of border issues, but to add insult to injury the Arab Spring brought about Anti-Israel and Anti-West leadership from the Muslim Brotherhood.  The Supreme Guide Badi has directed his hate towards Israel at the Al-Qaeda level in his rise to power.  While I favored the Father ofthe Egyptian Revolution Mohamad ElBaradei."  I did not feel he could maintain control of the movement to become the Arab Spring President of Egypt.  I strongly warned of Egypt being swayed and controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood if Mubarak`s leadership fell, and this did happen in Egypt as well as in Tunisia.

The new Egyptian President may be a good man; however, he is obligated to the Muslim Brotherhood base of power.   With this in mind Israel already facing difficult neighbors now has become completely isolated.

Israel has tough national security dilemmas to deal with.  They have acted as the "Maritime Toll Gate"  and created some issues with Turkish shipping trying to run the Israeli blockade; thereby, adding a bit more stress to the mix.  While the U.S. has vast Airbase support within Turkey, the U.S. relationship could be stressed via Anti-Israel sentiments within Turkey.

Lebanon and the West Bank has had a long history in cross border disputes with Israel, and of course within Israel; Hamas from the West Bank is currently rocketing Israeli Cities in a Saddam Hussein type of manor to try and turn the region against Israel and the United State/Western European influence.  Great Geopolitical strategies that may almost certainly create the death of multitudes within the West Bank and perhaps millions within the region, and untold misery, and economic hardships as apposed to success if the Israeli Pandora`s Box is opened.  Yet, this is the mindset of Martyrs, unfortunately not every resident in the West Bank would agree to being a Martyr.  All being watches and the masses of America ready and willing to side with Israel as are most of not only Western Europe, but also the hundreds of millions of Christians and Jews within Eastern Europe.  Shall we not forget that many of the Jewish people left Russia to live in the Jewish State and without a doubt; the Russian/Former Soviet States would be empathetic to pleas from being attacked. 

 

Russia has a history and willingness to engage and respond if Russians are threatened abroad as we saw in Georgia. So, one could not rule out the kinship and like minded support between the United States, Western Europe and Russia/Former Soviet States if Israel begin to be overwhelmed.  If you think I am wrong in this consider that I have spent decades studying the former Soviet States and have about ten years in country experience jet-setting back and forth to the Ukraine, and I know the strong religious beliefs of the culture, and the religious values that they hold.  Putin to gain support has traveled to Israel, and Russia was one of the first to condemn the West Bank attacks on Tel Aviv by Hamas.

 

Tourism and constructive trade is the key to the regions survival.  This includes the opening up of trade routes back to Iran if they back of their nuclear ambitions, and of course reviving the Egyptian and Turkish tourism.   Actually, the entire region could use a FEDERAL HIGHWAY SYSTEM COMPLETE WITH TOLL ROADS RUNNING TO AND FROM ALL OF ISRAELS NEIGHBORS FRIENDS AND FOES FROM IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA, JORDAN, LEBANON, TO THE EAST EQYPT, LIBYA, AND INTO MARACCO.

 

But the real deal would be Peace Park and my Two State Solution.  While it may be a dream and/or an attempt to ease my soul from dealing with the 1st Gulf War and my long term commitment to see both sides of the issues between Israel and the Palestinians and their quest for a Palestinian State.  A simple issue and should be looked at over death and destruction.

   

Peace Park and my two State Solution via the VenusProject.  

 

Dead Sea revitalization in the coming years, other construction sites to be at the Dead Sea which will be revitalized in the coming years.   http://www.jpost.com/Sci-Tech/Article.aspx?id=258850

 

PEACE PARK and my TWO STATE SOLUTION via "The Venus Project" could bring peace to the Middle East.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJfKXbvA5T8&feature=fvwrel  and this more lengthy part 1  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqplP-E8Dvw&feature=related  and part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Cu4qzDVjGQ .  In addition they have a website http://www.thevenusproject.com/.  

 

NOTE, I am not sold totally on Social Engineering and have written about this while encouraging the group to focus more on mainstream use of sound economic and finance principles "  Yet, I do feel that such a grand project would provide constructive leadership over that of the current Wars and Rumors of War destructive leadership.

 

For over three decades Thirty Years, I have promoted the Two State Solution between Israel and Palestine.  I ramped up a more aggressive quest for Peace in the Middle East after my involvement in helping organize, and maintain the Multi-national Coalition to Liberate Kuwait against Saddam Hussein`s naked aggression and invasion of his Peaceful Oil Rich Neighbor. 

 

I do not like war, but I gained invaluable experience in dealing with intense high level American Presidential Politics, Global Coalition Building, Influencing the United Nations and Strategic Covert Agreements with Russia.  I even put words in former Soviet/Russian Presidents mouth to try and influence Saddam Hussein to back out of Kuwait to overt war "  Saddam did not back out and it led to war; however, that war only cost about 70 billion dollars unlike the trillions that this wartime economy has affected. 

 

I feel that I saved millions of lives as I positively affected the economic fate of nations and diminished Saddam Hussein`s power to little more than the Mayor of Baghdad.

 

I opposed a return to Iraq during the George W. Bush Administration and we see today that my thoughts of flawed intelligence, and going into Iraq was not justified, and it cost American`s trillions of dollars, as well the "Wartime Economy" was the direct contributor to the current economic downturn that America and the World faces.  I feel that America`s "Common Defense" has lost its commonsense with the spending of nearly 1/2 Trillion a year in the Middle East and the result is less Peace.  Cities could be built for a fraction of the Defense dollars spent.

 

I strongly believe that "PEACE PARK" can solve the "Two State Solution Problems."   We need to go beyond minor turf issues and housing settlements and find ways to maximize the" Co-existence Zone Lands" and provide new housing for both states, and develop a solid growth and development plans to deal with the vast economic issues.  In addition, the region should focus on a United Nations Global Reform Mandate to conduct city by city Comprehensive Planning such as this example United Nations Global ReformMandate.  

 

PEACE PARK like many great Theme Parks in the world attracts tens of millions of visitors each and every year.  These amazing theme parks also bring tens of thousands of jobs, and successful economic development to those communities. 

 

With this in mind, I am again proposing that a Co-Existence Zone be agreed upon between Israel, and Palestine to develop "PEACE PARK".  PEACE PARK will focus on creating true peace and prosperity not only within the Middle East between the two States of Israel and Palestine, but be a beacon of Peace for the entire World.

 

PEACE PARK would attract the support and cooperation of Engineers, Builders, Investors/Land Developers, and Capital Markets from around the world.  As the park becomes a success, it will bring millions from around the world.  In turn those multitudes will bring trade and commerce opportunities that will feed, cloth and shelter those within the Middle East.

 

PEACE PARK may still have a wall in key areas; however, this wall should be built in the form of TOWN HOMES, FLATS, AND COMMERCIAL, RETAIL, HOTEL, AND OFFICE strips. One state on one side and the other on the other side.  These Town Homes can run for miles upon miles to create a border; however, provide beautiful and safe communities.  Communities complete with well-constructed housing, courtyards, gardens and other green space, and wonderful promenades with old world street lighting to light the path to PEACE PARK.

 

This is the history of Israel and Palestinian issues. It is time to add Peace and PEACEPARK to the bottom of that list.

 

Wars and Rumors of War:

 

Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds have cross border issues, Israel as I mentioned above is the Pandora`s Box, Iran`s quest to go nuclear, Afghanistan in a mess from a decade of war, Pakistan also in a mess with Intelligence Agencies feeding upon each other, Egypt the new Geopolitical powerbroker that could destabilize the region.  Libya divided, and may ultimately be divided into two or three separate nations as they have show their obvious lack of support via the killing of the U.S. Ambassador and his Co-Diplomats due to their push of the "Death Democracy" over my simple U.N. request for Humanitarian Intervention and separation to avoid conflict in Libya. 

 

The inept African Union failed to act and would have clearly allowed Gadhafi to slaughter multitudes in Eastern Libya as he did in the "Slaughter in Misrata"; their failure to act also influenced the U.S. led Regime Change Doctrine that I call "Death Democracy".  I wrote a number of letters to the African Union in attempts to prevent Civil Conflict in Libya and I was disappointed in the lack of African Union leadership "  Africa is deeply divided between Christian and Muslim.  Radical Muslims have attacked Christian Churches in clear and blatant acts of disrespect.

 

As you can see the World is in need of constructive leadership as the list could go on a bit more, but you get the idea of the religious, political, business and ethnic divides that tend to cling to destructive leadership, over that of a voice of reason that offers constructive leadership.

 

Thank you, and may God Bless us all and pay special attention to bring Constructive Leadership that offers Peace and Prosperity to the Middle East and the rest of the World.

 

HarveyCarroll, Jr.

Some might call me an expert, and I guess I have been called worse!