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Published:March 18th, 2014 16:15 EST
Putin Gets What Putin Wants

Putin Gets What Putin Wants

By Vincent Gonzalez

The inadequacies of the behavior of the international community that continue to plaque the world are nothing new. Same can be said for the conflict in Ukraine. The fact that the Russian military had practically occupied the Crimea region without so much of a struggle highlights the determination of a Russian president bent on getting what he wants and knowing that he`ll succeed. Recently, with many analysts speculating on the outcome of the situation, it`s hard to imagine if any solution can be achieved.  

Putin

            For the most part, President Vladimir Putin of Russia knows exactly what he`s doing. On the outside, Putin may put on a hard demeanor, but just like every toddler he gets what he wants. Lately, many analysts assert that the Russian naval base in Sevastopol in the Crimea region is an important port for Russia, as it is Russia`s only warm-water navel installation in the area. But not many of the news stations mention the commercial port just a couple hundred miles away in Novorossiysk; a port that Russia has been for the most part building up as a potential replacement, and also has the unique distinction of being in Russia. If Russia really wanted to, the port seems capable of housing the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

            At the end of the day, there`s no real solution for the West. Crimea, regardless of the referendum outcome, will likely manifest itself into a "frozen territory." This usually occurs when a cease-fire is made, essentially freezing boundaries the military controls. Since this area is likely to be under military occupation for the perceivable future, it`s hard to imagine if Ukraine can eventually join NATO. As long as Russia occupies Sevastopol, and Ukraine maintains Crimea, Ukraine can`t join NATO since being a NATO member requires that you don`t have a foreign military base on your soil.  

            Seems like the new way of acquiring land in this century, at least according to Putin is not to move your border through invasion, but instead by simply using the guise of self-determination to chip away at another`s countries territory. The capacity that the West has in trying to solve this conflict seems to be overshadowed by Putin determination to not give a shit. Let`s face it, besides Ukraine no one really cares a lot about Crimea than Russia.  

Looking at the situation, if by some chance the U.S. was to recognize Crimea`s independence, it would do so at the risk of creating more complex diplomatic interaction. The current threats of sanctions coming from the West seem to have little effect on Putin`s determination. European leaders are quick to notice that Europe relies heavily on natural gas and oil to keep their lights on, roughly 40 percent. Depending on the degree that the West is willing to go, Putin can easily turn off their lights with a simple phone call. Also, we can`t forget that any progression in dealing with the Syrian regime and the Iranian nuclear conflict can`t move forward without the support from Russia.

For the most part, the reality of the situation is that more than likely the Crimea conflict is all but a done deal. However misguided and motivated to vote, the Crimea people for the most part seem like they rather be Russians anyway. At the end of the day, regardless of whatever resolutions the international community comes up with, Vladimir Putin is likely to get what he wants. Any negotiations that take place in the coming days and weeks are likely to prove one simple truth, that Russia has gotten the better of them. And at the end of the day, that seems to be all that Putin wanted.