October 28th, 2014 13:09 EST
The Democrats Bravely Defend The Fort, as Far as the Senate Majority Goes!
The Republican bid to gain a majority in the Senate is pushing up against an obstinate, concrete wall in quite a few states; I`ll confidently opine, a number of these Battleground States will hold steady, forcing the Boys In Red to retreat back to their Grandiose Bungalows (or wherever this bunch likes to congregate)! This bold pronouncement is not just a Shot In The Dark, although some instinct gets factored in (along the way); I`ve been doing quite a bit of research and have been ogling the stupid polls religiously.
Obviously, I feel like the polls become less and less reliable as we move from one election to a newer election. A crackerjack ground game (scientifically realized), on the part of the Democrats, in select states where blockage is absolutely mandatory, renders these polls useless, hopelessly inaccurate. I`ll even say, Wendy Davis in Texas, will lose by no more than 5%; thus demonstrating how lousy the polls have gotten.
Wherever the polls say the Republican candidate is ahead by 3% or less, actually, the Democrat will win there. As such, Michelle Nunn will take Georgia, Kay Hagan retains North Carolina, Grimes bumps McConnell in Kentucky, Shaheen keeps New Hampshire, Braley deflects the trigger-happy Ernst in Iowa, (maybe) Pryor bags Arkansas, and finally, Udall holds the line against Gardner in beautiful Colorado!
There are several reasons why I believe Udall will win in Colorado; the first is, in every state, voter turnout is going to be quite a bit better than it was in 2010. An increase in voters will benefit the Democrats more; where earlier on it was predicted that apathy would rule the day in the Midterms, this has changed dramatically over the past two weeks. One reason for this, amongst many others, is the thought of the Republicans gaining control of the senate, tends to motivate people to vote, knowing all they`re up to (they don`t have a viable platform, really), is OBAMA BASHING!
And as far as the recent surge of unpopularity goes, aimed at The President, many voters may project a dislike for his (accomplishments) publicly, while secretly feeling glad that programs such as The Affordable Care Act are now the Law Of The Land! The fact that this or that candidate voted with The President 99% of the time, is no Big Deal, as far as I`m concerned.
If this (ACA) helps poor people get an insurance policy so they can go to the doctor when they are sick, why should they (DEMS) feel ashamed of that! What`s more shameful is Republicans who back the large insurers, who don`t mind bumping the poor off coverage because of a pre-existing condition (as one good example).
Okay, so perhaps in this final week the DEMS should begin to come behind Obama more; this would show they have more backbone, not cowering from their fundamental principles. It couldn`t hurt them anymore; the downward draft damage has already been achieved to the maximum.
Back to Udall (Rachel Maddow is broadcasting from Colorado today)! Another great point you can make about Udall`s chance of winning, is the first time presence of mail-in ballots; this makes it easier to vote for working people and tends to ratchet-up the turn-out. A one or 2% increase can have only one affect, it will help Udall.
The example of Michael Bennet`s win in 2010 keeps popping up, and for good reason. I watched that race closely; Bennet was consistently trailing Ken Buck in the polls, by a few percentage points. It was the ground game that made the difference, in the final few days.
This year`s election is a virtual repeat of what occurred in 2010, which was practically a miracle, with the only difference (being), the get-out-the-vote machine is significantly stronger this year! My advice to Mark Udall (if not to all Democrats) is you might want to concentrate on the Hispanic vote, which comprises 15.4% of the eligible Coloradan electorate.
These elections are getting crazier and crazier every day; first it`s Halloween, then The Day of The Dead, then finally the Day of Reckoning (11/04), when we`ll finally get to find out whether the Fort holds or folds (to Santa Anna)!