June 20th, 2006 16:39 EST
July through September U.S. Summer Outlook
June 20, 2006 — As spring rolls out and summer rolls in, the weather patterns for the remainder of June are typical for what the nation can expect for the rest of the summer. (Click NOAA image for larger view of summer 2006 temperature outlook for the months July through September. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
The Summer Outlook
Seasonal forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are expecting above normal temperatures west of the Mississippi, in the state of Florida, in the New England region and in the southern half of Alaska. NOAA cautions the public, these areas could very well expect high temperatures for prolonged days, triggering heat waves and creating wildfire risks in many areas, especially in the West. In contrast, below-average temperatures are expected in Hawaii this season.
The seasonal precipitation forecast is less certain. However, there is a tendency for dryness in the southern Plains and wetness in the southern Atlantic states this summer.
U.S. Drought Status
Currently, extreme to exceptional drought (the highest rating depicted on the current U.S. Drought Monitor) is in the Southwest, extending northeastward into western Oklahoma and southeastern Colorado. Also, extreme drought affects northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska, as well parts of southern Texas and the central Gulf coast. (Click NOAA image for larger view of summer 2006 precipitation outlook for the months July through September. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)
"Improvement in drought conditions is likely along the Gulf Coast states and up the Appalachians," said Douglas Lecomte, NOAA Climate Prediction Center's drought specialist. He added, "Although we cannot count on major relief for much of the drought stricken area in the central and southern Plains, the outlook for the next two weeks does calls for less heat and increased rainfall to provide some reason for near-term optimism."
"With El Niño/La Niña neutral conditions in place, seasonal weather will be driven by more subtle impacts from global sea surface temperatures along with random fluctuations of the circulation pattern and feedbacks from ground and soil content levels feeding back into the atmosphere," said Michael Halpert, NOAA Climate Prediction Center's seasonal forecaster.
Summer weather can often bring severe weather. NOAA has a plethora of severe weather safety information online.
NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources.
Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, 61 countries and the European Commission to develop a global network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Climate Predict Center U.S. Seasonal Outlook
NOAA U.S. Drought Assessment Products
NOAA U.S. Hazards Maps
NOAA El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
NOAA Drought Information Center
Carmeyia Gillis, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163