September 17th, 2009 20:57 EST
Russia Is a New Powder Keg: NATO Missile Program
The move by U.S. investors making headlines today ago to abandon plans to construct an intercept missile shield program and radar center in Eastern Europe may improve relations with Russia, but many things must fall into place carefully for western interests to benefit from the "Nutcracker Market" setting. Be warned that many new risks will be present-- risks which do not currently exist in their present form.
Vladimir Putin will most likely be President of Russia again in 2012. He was educated in Soviet Republic National Security and economic development before working for the KGB. His doctoral thesis was about how to control the entire world economy with Russia`s rich natural resources, particularly in energy " ( both hydro-carbon and nuclear). Putin is a logical answer to Russia`s woes for a second time in an effort to recover national strength. Weakness, as the greatest sin of all, sits at the very core of Vladimir Putin`s philosophy of life. He told Russians after the Beslan school massacre, "Weak people are beaten always. " The cancellation of the NATO missile shield program removes the bridle and the reins that contain and counter Russian influence against eastern Europe and the CIS nations, making Russia stronger and later positioned as the dominant offensive strategist in both economic and ground warfare, because Russia will construct a missile program as soon as they are positioned, as their own. Putin may need the armament for what potential investment will create on the surface of the world`s increasingly rare, remaining oil reserves and (present and proposed) pipeline infrastructures.
The present administration`s weak state of positioning must be understood in order to predict their procession: At present, President Medvedev`s administration has been plagued with the country`s economic deficiencies, weak institutions being used as corruption clearinghouses (an estimated 41% of their cash flow is for bribes), social and health problems (alcoholism and the world`s highest per capita Afghan heroin addiction), and failure to contain a spreading Islamic insurgency in the Caucasus. The two men could have been characters in a "A Tale of Two Countries " is the latest joke among the intelligence community.
President Medvedev has not formulated an effective policy in the Northern Caucasus. Russia`s real war there is a war against corruption in the republics. Until Moscow improves there will be no improvement. A large question looms among Russian analysts, "Who is selling weapons to the extremists in the Northern Caucasus? "
The Federal Security Service (FSB) has been suggested that it investigate Iran for supporting terrorist activities in Chechnya and Ingushetia. This advice came in the form of a solid warning to Russia they must NOT join the U.S. led anti-Iranian coalition as they pointed out that Turkey has been stronger than Medvedev as a puppet master in the Caucasus lately. Russia is even being encouraged by moderate Islamics to create a joint anti-terrorist pact with Turkey. Turkey is a hero to the Abkhazian economy by opening up trade with the Abkhazian Republic: they think that if Medvedev uses their new trade model then he might successfully persuade other moderate Islamic states to invest directly in the economies of the North Caucasus, opening a Russian/Islamic free trade zone there. As an alternative to growing terror. The increase of Islamic terrorism is not confined to Russia`s southern flank. It is global and has been described as the biggest threat to European civilization. Russia must join forces on a much larger and broader scale. If NATO loses the war in Afghanistan, Islamic insurgence into Russia on behalf of terrorist groups will increase with their presence. Russia says we cannot win. In fact the Russian Ambassador has warned the U.S., do not send more troops or you will make the problems bigger.
Rule of law to deter terrorism is categorically exercised by active preventive strategies and deterrence, and sanctioned with pin-point retribution. So Russia, Turkey, the European Union, and the United States have determined that it is preferable to make trade, not war. Swift and shrewd moves away from Bush policy will create trade options that recover and manage assets lost or for sale by Russian oligarchs, all downed by the rapid world market implosion last year (2008), having over-leveraged themselves in efforts to monopolize the world market. Forecasters say that the economic influence compressed into the hands by a dozen or so oligarchs who emerged in the rapid sell-off of state property in the post-Soviet 1990s, will land in the hands of hundreds of entrepreneurs within the next two to three
This is an interesting and complex scenario because the West will not present a NATO protection program in Eastern Europe or the CIS countries after all. Russia is unleashed to be reckoned with, however; who will own distressed Russian assets will change quickly. "How much of Russia will Islam buy?" becomes a big question. They are big enough to get their money back --in ground wars if necessary--while we cannot afford another ground war. Moscow announced plans to construct over 200 mosques throughout Russia in 2008. Will this new opportunity for Western presence be devoured by Western investors at their additional peril, and if so, how can the same corruption patterns be halted, corruption that undermined or expropriated investment and businesses in banking, energy, etc. as State-owned under Putin? We wanted the NATO missile program to rein in Russian strategic dominance, the brainchild and culmination of Putin himself, because we watched Russia hoodwink the Western investor for $1.1 trillion [usd] within 9 years.
My guess is that Putin does and will want nuclear armament on their borders, as the OFFENSIVE party, not defense, and stopping NATO is a major and monumental task to that effect. The Russian population of approximately 141 million cannot conduct ground wars ever again. Nor can the Pentagon or Western investors afford it, unless what they really want is a huge ground war at any cost with Islam. Russia has taken great national pride knowing that during the cold war it was only their acquisition of the nuclear weapon that prevented the terror and destruction of World War III.
A.L. Lamar Wind Energy Technology