March 18th, 2014 15:59 EST
Ukraine's-Crimean Beggar Ballot: Illegal?
A vote out of Crimea will be a vote Beggar Ballot... Excluding the fact that it is considered illegal by the Parliament of Ukraine, and the International Community and being conducted under armed duress; and without any "Fact Finding" that led to the new Ukrainian Government Crimea is considering a "Beggar Ballot"... Granted Crimea like the rest of Ukraine needs to reform; however, the best way to do that is through unity, not division and separation, which will devastate the Crimean economy. Crimea is approximately 85% depended upon the 25 Million Miadon supporters; thereby, a Beggar Ballot would isolate Crimea from the rest of Ukraine; thereby, causing economic opportunities to be lost, a huge unemployment rate that could reach far over 30%, housing values could drop more than 60%, Pension`s for Doctor`s, Policemen, Firemen and so many other Ukrainian State Workers, and Pensioners could be lost, many of which are of Russian Origin. Crimean`s will also loose in the following areas and much more:
1)Crimean Beggar Ballot will not Reform Special Interest and corruption that will lead to more foreign direct investment to increases growth and development.
2)Crimean Beggar Ballot will not increase Tourism, Trade and Commerce, and City by City "Comprehensive Planning"
3) Crimean Beggar Ballot will not lead to Economic Sovereignty, or will it attract IMF and other Funding support.
4) Crimean Beggar Ballot will not lead to peace and stability within Crimea.
This short paper shows how the "Crimean Beggar Ballot" will clearly take Crimea down the wrong economic path, and perhaps even down a bloody path of war.
Crimean Beggar Ballot will not Reform Special Interest and corruption to attract more Ukrainian, and Foreign Direct Investment to increases growth and development. Crimean housing and commercial real estate values will drop an estimated 60%, billions will be lost in both Ukraine and Russian Financial Markets, and create runs on Financial Institutions. Pension Fund`s that are paid out by Ukraine to both Ukrainian and Russian`s now living in Crimea may be lost... This will create the largest dependency of Welfare and turn Crimea into a Beggar State...
Russia may claim to offer assistance, but it will be short-term and Russian interest are military, dominance of its neighbor`s, and making money, not giving it away... In fact, it was Russia that has been the receiver of Western AID a number of times over the past two decades. Bailouts of Bank`s, buyouts of the International Space Station, and of course buyouts of Nuclear Weapons Programs and Pension Plans that Russia could no longer sustain... The West is the most responsible when it comes to stabilizing Eastern Europe i.e. Ukraine/Crimea. The People have to simple look in their Bazaar`s, and Markets and savings to realize that the American Dollar has maintained Economic Stability for the region prevented them from being Beggar`s...
Post Soviet Collapse more than 3/4ths of the former Soviet States took Western Bailout money to stabilize their economic conditions...
Crimea has to be a responsible Representative Regional Government of Ukraine, which are good stewards of the Crimean economic fate. Crimean Regional Representative`s with the support of Ukraine should focus on infrastructure, growth and development. Not a continuation of corruption and trying to rewrite the Revolution per Putin`s delusions. Favoring such delusions of a separate Crimea will be irresponsible and will plunge the Crimean people into an unsustainable debt and create a blockade of 85% of its economic livelihood...
Common Defense of Crimea and Ukraine has to be based on Commonsense. The West is not the aggressor here, it is Russian policy that got misguided by a thieving Mass Murder that the people of Miadon took to the streets in "Peaceful Protest" rid Ukraine/Crimea from.
Crimean Beggar Ballot will not increase Tourism, Trade and Commerce, and City by City "Comprehensive Planning"--Fair Trade-Economies of scale between Ukraine/Crimea and the EU and the rest of the world must focus on Fair Trade, while adding Value Added Taxes (VAT`s) to imports from cheaper producers such as China. Fair Trade Deals can be done with both the East and West in order to reduce their trade imbalances and maintain job/tax basis for a healthy Nominal GDP which is only about 170 Billion Dollars the same as my home state of Kentucky " Kentucky`s population is 4.4 million, while Ukraine`s population is 44.5 million and has far more resources and hundreds of miles of Coastline that is a hundred years behind Western Coastal Resort Development...
Crimea`s "Beggar Ballot" will devalue its currency to the status of "Toilet Paper" along with the values of their homes, commercial, and tourism economy... Crimea must step away from Russia as other nations have between Russia and the former Iron Curtain to obtain Freedom and get higher standards from their Elected Representative`s.
Democracy is about being beholden and entrusted by the people to consider their best interest and not to undermine and/or steal their best interest and money.
Infrastructure/Comprehensive Planning and Additional Reforms--City by City Comprehensive Planning (corruption to Civil Society participation)-The Citizen`s of Crimea must come to understand the same as Miadon did and a Beggar Ballot would only undermine reforms in Ukrainian National policies to reduce government dependency, and poverty.
More power through "Comprehensive Planning" mandates should shift the dominant position of the National Government, and Regional Government of Crimea to the Local Levels to create growth and development. I have already prepared Planning Template`s for some Crimean Tourism Cities "Saki and Yevpatoria, Crimea-Ukraine; along with other large scale development concepts to increase tourism...
Crimea must continue to be part of Ukraine and work closely with the new Government in Kiev, to address key Reforms-economic sovereignty, rapid privatization and investment in Tourism, and Road Bonds, agricultural, and industrial restructuring, liberalization of prices and trade policy, elimination of state subsidies to loss-making enterprises, serious reduction of credit emissions from the banking system, establishment of control over government spending, especially for burgeoning social safety net programs, and stabilizing the currency.
These are the real challenges that Crimea has to contend with... Accepting the will of Armed Gunmen around the Crimean Parliament and around Ukrainian/Crimean Military Installations is not leadership, but the acceptance of conflict as opposed to constructive leadership to deal with Crimea`s real sovereign economic challenges...
Ukraine/Crimea has had a very difficult time making these reforms, and has allowed misguiding special interest policy to undermine economic national security...
The United States, and Western European Capitalist ran to the aid of the former Soviet States upon collapse, but we have not been treated fairly. We have been isolated in doing business, and corruption prevailed over sound deal structuring based on economic and finance policy... Yet, we continued to try to help, but many of us are tired and offer this as a last hope for Crimea and Ukraine to take the right path of constructive leadership, over that of destructive leadership...
Crimean Beggar Ballot will not lead to Economic Sovereignty, nor will it attract IMF and other Funding support -- The Beggar Ballot will reduce Crimea`s economic sovereignty, via vast losses in Banking, Pension`s, Investment`s, Trade, Commerce, and will be plagued with high Interest; thereby, increasing foreign debt (where few in the world will offer), foreign trade imbalances, and energy dependence; whereby, pensioners will not have the money to pay for energy...
Rapid Privatization and Industrial Restructuring- Ukraine has been very successful in privatization; however, it has failed to recognize that Government can be a catalyst for growth and development through Comprehensive Planning Incentives that can grow City, and the Regional/National economy. One example is the encouragement of more Public-Private-Partnership`s at the Local Levels via strong Comprehensive Planning and Business Tax Reform. Such incentives for agribusiness, industrial, land development, housing, and tourism expansion along with the Ukrainian Parliament and the National Project`s of Ukraine establishment of a strong Virtual World Trade Center and Road and Tourism Bond structuring...
Liberalization of Prices and Trade Policy- Ukraine and Crimea has had a liberalization of prices and trade policy to the point of undermining its Economic National Security. The rising Trade Imbalance will continue to damage the economy of Ukraine. New, EU agreements on Trade, along with continued Neutral Ukraine type trade policies with Russia/CIS and low producing importers with VAT`s will balance Ukraine`s Trade... The Beggar Vote will also be a vote for "Unfair Trade Policies" imposed by Russia that will undermine the Crimean economy in trade, commerce, tourism, agribusiness, and decline the service industry my an estimated 85%.
Elimination of State Subsidies to Loss-Making Enterprises- The Beggar Ballot would wipe nearly all Pension`s and all Subsidies that Ukraine provides to Crimea... This would be a sad and devastation policy for Crimea. On the other hand, there should be reforms in subsidizing special interest industries would allow for larger industries and/or better management, to convert these industries into profit making enterprises.
Serious Reduction of Credit Emission`s from the Banking System- I personally made the suggestion to bail out Ukrainian Bank`s (75) at an International Finance Corporation, part of the World Bank at the Hyatt in Kiev, prior to the crises as I anticipated a major collapse within the banking industry. This saved a run on the banks and a total collapse of the Ukrainian Banking Industry, and saved the loss insurmountable wealth.
The Beggar Ballot would result in huge Capital Markets losses, and and estimated 60% of the Crimean Housing Wealth and the destruction of the Crimean "Communities/Tax Base". The global crises has been tough for everyone around the world, there is not need to triple the intensity via a Beggar Vote in Crimea.
I was anticipating the crash long before it occurred and approximately a year and a half before I begin writing spreadsheets and share them with the U.S. House and Senate Financial Services Committee`s to try and soften the vast loses via Bank Bailouts in America as well as share like information to help Ukraine.
Failed leadership in Crimea would devastate their economy... The Beggar Ballot would create a unstable situation to the point that losses would be so deep that it would require all of Crimea to receive AID that no one is in a position to give. Especially, Russia as Sanctions would continue to decline its economy...
Crimea working with the Ukrainian Parliament must Establish Control over Government Spending, (especially for burgeoning social safety net programs, and stabilizing the currency)-For far too long the People have not had any control over Big Government Spending and Corruption, as well as banking corruption where huge loans for real estate projects have been based on the amount of bribe given, as opposed to a plan based on sound economic and finance principles. This has created a lack of trust with Banks and they way they handle depositor`s money...
This has led to a huge increase in unemployment, and a burgeoning social safety net programs, as well as political instability, and places risk of destabilizing the currency of Ukraine/Crimea.
Additional Economic Problems and Drains that need to be expanded upon:
War on Drugs and the Shadow Economy ????????????????
Trade Patterns unfavorable to the Crimea/Ukraine.
Lagging Foreign Investment and the lack of Business/Investment Reforms.
The Problem of Capital Flight (Swiss Bank Accounts vs Community Reinvestment`s).
Rising Foreign Debt Levels.
Employment and Wage reforms.
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Issues.
Fiscal Deficits and Inflation.
Lax Expenditure Control and Corruption.
A weak Tax System due to losses of tax bases in Agribusiness 10%, Industry 30%, and Tourism/Service Industry 60% of the economy all underdeveloped.
Deficit Financing Capabilities via Road and Tourism Bonds and other inflow justification for financing.
Privatization of Public Lands.
Competition Policy via a "Neutral Ukraine Policy."
General Business Climate.
I feel that the lack of economic stewardship from Ukrainian/Crimean economic policies have created major economic problems in nearly All Sectors of the economy. Failed Economic Policy Making that Balance the Budget has treasonously-undermined Crimean/Ukraine`s Economic and National Security...
The Crimean Beggar Ballot may lead from a path of economic growth and development of peace and prosperity to a brutal and bloody path of war--The Crimean Beggar Ballot is not leadership and will be a return to the failed Soviet Union economic policies that resulted in the young and elderly begging in the streets. I saw this personally 10 years after the collapse of the Soviet states that failed to provide for the Russian National within Crimea, Ukraine...
Sincerely, and please consider my thoughts for I put a great deal of research, and hard work into them. I have dealt with Eastern European Policy as a private citizen for nearly 30 years, as well as nearly 12 years traveling to Crimea/Ukraine... I have really enjoyed visiting and trying to improve Ukraine/Crimea for the best. Crimean Dr.`s and Hospital saved my life, and found cancer in my Kidney which I had removed in America. Now I am returning the favor and trying to save lives in Crimea/Ukraine...